Rubicon 2024 Interpreting Polls

Rubicon 2024 Interpreting Polls. Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race, using data from national and battleground state polls. Here's 538's guide to interpreting them.

Discover our public data, featuring a diverse range of survey results, articles, trackers and popularity rankings. So here is how our model translates polls and the other inputs it uses into probabilities in the electoral college and the popular vote in every state — plus some nightmare scenarios like a repeat of the 2000.